my picks for tonight’s 94th Academy Awards (winners indicated)
I haven’t seen as many of the nominated films as I’d have liked. So I’m just trying to put myself in the mindset of how the Academy thinks about movies.
UPDATE: Winners are now indicated. I correctly guessed 11 out of the 23 categories, which is exactly as well as I did last year.
Herewith my guesses about which nominees will take home Oscars tonight.
I haven’t seen as many of the nominated films as I’d have liked. (I continue to be affected by pandemic brain, finding it extremely difficult to focus on work, including finding headspace for movies and the subsequent headspace for reviews.) So my guesses this year about which films will win — indicated by Xes on the lefthand side — are, more than ever, about trying to put myself in the mindset of how the Academy thinks about movies. Which is often not about any pretense toward determining “objective” quality but about peer pressure; which nominee is “owed” an award after a long career of, perhaps, being slighted at awards season; and the like. Often we hear on the sly about how some Academy members don’t even bother to watch many of the nominees but vote anyway.
We’re all in the bullshit game this year. Again.
Best Picture
[ X ] Belfast
[ ] CODA WINNER
[ ] Don’t Look Up
[ ] Drive My Car
[ ] Dune
[ ] King Richard
[ ] Licorice Pizza
[ ] Nightmare Alley
[ ] The Power of the Dog
[ ] West Side Story
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
[ ] Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
[ X ] Ariana DeBose – West Side Story WINNER
[ ] Judi Dench – Belfast
[ ] Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
[ ] Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
[ ] Ciaran Hinds – Belfast
[ X ] Troy Kotsur – CODA WINNER
[ ] Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
[ ] J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
[ ] Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
Best International Feature Film
[ ] Drive My Car WINNER
[ ] Flee
[ ] The Hand of God
[ ] Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
[ X ] The Worst Person in the World
Best Documentary Short Subject
[ ] “Audible”
[ ] “Lead Me Home”
[ ] “The Queen of Basketball” WINNER
[ ] “Three Songs for Benazir”
[ X ] “When We Were Bullies”
Best Documentary Feature
[ ] Ascension
[ ] Attica
[ X ] Flee
[ ] Summer of Soul WINNER
[ ] Writing with Fire
Best Original Song
[ ] “Be Alive” – King Richard
[ X ] “Dos Oruguitas” – Encanto
[ ] “Down to Joy” – Belfast
[ ] “No Time To Die” – No Time to Die WINNER
[ ] “Somehow You Do” – Four Good Days
Best Animated Feature Film
[ ] Encanto WINNER
[ ] Flee
[ ] Luca
[ X ] The Mitchells vs. the Machines
[ ] Raya and the Last Dragon
Best Adapted Screenplay
[ ] CODA WINNER
[ ] Drive My Car
[ ] Dune
[ X ] The Lost Daughter
[ ] The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay
[ ] Belfast WINNER
[ X ] Don’t Look Up
[ ] King Richard
[ ] Licorice Pizza
[ ] The Worst Person in the World
Best Actor in a Leading Role
[ ] Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
[ ] Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
[ ] Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick… Boom!
[ X ] Will Smith – King Richard WINNER
[ ] Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actress in a Leading Role
[ ] Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye WINNER
[ X ] Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
[ ] Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
[ ] Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
[ ] Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Best Director
[ ] Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
[ ] Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
[ ] Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
[ X ] Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog WINNER
[ ] Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
Best Production Design
[ ] Dune WINNER
[ X ] Nightmare Alley
[ ] The Power of the Dog
[ ] The Tragedy of Macbeth
[ ] West Side Story
Best Cinematography
[ ] Dune WINNER
[ ] Nightmare Alley
[ X ] The Power of the Dog
[ ] The Tragedy of Macbeth
[ ] West Side Story
Best Costume Design
[ X ] Cruella WINNER
[ ] Cyrano
[ ] Dune
[ ] Nightmare Alley
[ ] West Side Story
Best Sound
[ ] Belfast
[ X ] Dune WINNER
[ ] No Time to Die
[ ] The Power of the Dog
[ ] West Side Story
Best Animated Short Film
[ ] “Affairs of the Art”
[ X ] “Bestia”
[ ] “Boxballet”
[ ] “Robin Robin”
[ ] “The Windshield Wiper” WINNER
Best Live-Action Short Film
[ ] “Ala Kachuu — Take and Run”
[ ] “The Dress”
[ X ] “The Long Goodbye” WINNER
[ ] “On My Mind”
[ ] “Please Hold”
Best Original Score
[ ] Don’t Look Up
[ X ] Dune WINNER
[ ] Encanto
[ ] Parallel Mothers
[ ] The Power of the Dog
Best Visual Effects
[ X ] Dune WINNER
[ ] Free Guy
[ ] No Time to Die
[ ] Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
[ ] Spider-Man: No Way Home
Best Film Editing
[ ] Don’t Look Up
[ X ] Dune WINNER
[ ] King Richard
[ ] The Power of the Dog
[ ] Tick, Tick… Boom!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
[ ] Coming 2 America
[ ] Cruella
[ ] Dune
[ X ] The Eyes of Tammy Faye WINNER
[ ] House of Gucci
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