my picks for tonight’s 95th Academy Awards (the Oscars for 2022’s films) (winners indicated)
not necessarily whom I think should win, but whom I think will win
UPDATE: 03.13.23 Winners are now indicated. I correctly guessed 13 out of the 23 categories, which is a little better than how I did last year.
previous: 03.12.23
Herewith my guesses about which nominees will take home Oscars tonight.
I haven’t reviewed many of this year’s nominees, but I have seen most of them. (I do still hope to review more of the nominated films asap.) But as usual, my guesses about which films will win — indicated by Xes on the lefthand side — are about trying to put myself in the mindset of how the Academy thinks about movies. Which is often not about any pretense toward determining “objective” quality but about peer pressure; which nominee is “owed” an award after a long career of, perhaps, being slighted at awards season; and the like. Often we hear on the sly about how some Academy members don’t even bother to watch many of the nominees but vote anyway.
At least I’ve seen most of the nominees…
previous: 01.24.23
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences — of which I am, alas, not a member — has just revealed the nominees of its 2023 awards, for films released between January 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022. The full list of Oscar nominees is below. Links here go to my reviews, with reviews to come for most if not all those I haven’t yet reviewed.
Winners will be announced at the ceremony on March 13th. As soon as possible — but probably in the week before the ceremony — I’ll post my guesses about who might win.
Check out my still ongoing, not yet completed ranking of 2022’s films.
(See the Academy’s site at Oscars.org and ABC’s site at Oscars.com for your further Oscar needs.)
Best Picture
[ ] All Quiet on the Western Front
[ ] Avatar: The Way of Water
[ ] The Banshees of Inisherin
[ ] Elvis
[ X ] Everything Everywhere All at Once WINNER
[ ] The Fabelmans
[ ] Tár
[ ] Top Gun: Maverick
[ ] Triangle of Sadness
[ ] Women Talking
Best Actress in a Leading Role
[ ] Cate Blanchett – Tár
[ ] Ana de Armas – Blonde
[ ] Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
[ ] Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
[ X ] Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once WINNER
Best Actor in a Leading Role
[ ] Austin Butler – Elvis
[ ] Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
[ X ] Brendan Fraser – The Whale WINNER
[ ] Paul Mescal – Aftersun
[ ] Bill Nighy – Living
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
[ ] Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
[ ] Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
[ ] Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
[ ] Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
[ X ] Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once WINNER
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
[ ] Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
[ ] Hong Chau – The Whale
[ ] Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
[ X ] Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once WINNER
[ ] Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Director
[ ] Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
[ ] Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinart – Everything Everywhere All at Once WINNER
[ ] Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
[ X ] Todd Field – Tár
[ ] Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
[ X ] The Banshees of Inisherin
[ ] Everything Everywhere All At Once WINNER
[ ] The Fabelmans
[ ] Tár
[ ] Triangle of Sadness
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
[ ] All Quiet on the Western Front
[ ] Glass Onion
[ ] Living
[ ] Top Gun: Maverick
[ X ] Women Talking WINNER
Best International Feature Film
[ X ] All Quiet on the Western Front WINNER
[ ] Argentina 1985
[ ] Close
[ ] Eo
[ ] The Quiet Girl
Best Animated Feature Film
[ X ] Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio WINNER
[ ] Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
[ ] Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
[ ] The Sea Beast
[ ] Turning Red
Best Documentary Feature
[ ] All That Breathes
[ ] All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
[ X ] Fire of Love
[ ] A House Made of Splinters
[ ] Navalny WINNER
Best Film Editing
[ ] The Banshess of Inisherin
[ ] Elvis
[ X ] Everything Everywhere All at Once WINNER
[ ] Tár
[ ] Top Gun: Maverick
Best Cinematography
[ X ] All Quiet on the Western Front WINNER
[ ] Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
[ ] Elvis
[ ] Empire of Light
[ ] Tár
Best Music (Original Score)
[ ] All Quiet on the Western Front WINNER
[ ] Babylon
[ ] The Banshees of Inisherin
[ X ] Everything Everywhere All at Once
[ ] The Fabelmans
Best Music (Original Song)
[ ] “Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman
[ ] “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
[ X ] “Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
[ ] “Naatu Naatu” – RRR WINNER
[ ] “This Is a Life” – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Sound
[ ] All Quiet on the Western Front
[ ] Avatar: The Way of Water
[ ] The Batman
[ ] Elvis
[ X ] Top Gun: Maverick WINNER
Best Visual Effects
[ ] All Quiet On the Western Front
[ X ] Avatar: The Way of Water WINNER
[ ] The Batman
[ ] Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
[ ] Top Gun: Maverick
Best Production Design
[ ] All Quiet On the Western Front WINNER
[ ] Avatar: The Way of Water
[ X ] Babylon
[ ] Elvis
[ ] The Fabelmans
Best Costume Design
[ X ] Babylon
[ ] Black Panther: Wakanda Forever WINNER
[ ] Elvis
[ ] Everything Everywhere All at Once
[ ] Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
[ ] All Quiet on the Western Front
[ ] The Batman
[ ] Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
[ X ] Elvis
[ ] The Whale WINNER
Best Animated Short Film
[ ] “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” WINNER
[ ] “The Flying Sailor”
[ ] “Ice Merchants”
[ X ] “My Year of Dicks”
[ ] “An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It”
Best Live Action Short Film
[ ] “An Irish Goodbye” WINNER
[ ] “Ivalu”
[ ] “Le Pupille”
[ X ] “Night Ride”
[ ] “The Red Suitcase”
Documentary Short Subject
[ X ] “The Elephant Whisperers” WINNER
[ ] “Haulout”
[ ] “How Do You Measure a Year?”
[ ] “The Martha Mitchell Effect”
[ ] “Stranger at the Gate”
Well done! Especially impressed you called the WOMEN TALKING adapted screenplay win; I haven't seen All Quiet on the Western Front, but it seemed to be a favorite so I thought it had that one in the bag as well.