my picks for tonight’s 97th Academy Awards (the Oscars for 2024’s films) (winners indicated)

I correctly guessed 12 out of the 23 categories, which is exactly as well as I did last year. (Five of my “should win”s did win!) At least I’m consistent.

UPDATE: 03.03.25 Winners are now indicated. I correctly guessed 12 out of the 23 categories, which is exactly as well as I did last year. (Five of my “should win”s did win!) At least I’m consistent.

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previous: 03.02.25

Herewith my guesses about which nominees will take home Oscars tonight. Come back tomorrow, when I’ll add the winners, and see how well I did.

I’ve had another terrible year as I continue to cope with some mental and physical health issues, so I haven’t reviewed anywhere near as many of this year’s nominees as I’d have liked, but I have seen most of them. (I do still hope to review more of the nominated films asap.) But as usual, my guesses about which films will win — indicated by Xes on the lefthand side — are about trying to put myself in the mindset of how the Academy thinks about movies. Which is often not about any pretense toward determining “objective” quality but about peer pressure; which nominee is “owed” an award after a long career of, perhaps, being slighted at awards season; industry gossip; and the like. Often we hear on the sly about how some Academy members don’t even bother to watch many of the nominees but vote anyway.

I’ve also indicated which nominees I think should win… which isn’t necessarily which nominee I think is the best among all the year’s work but which I think is most deserving among the five — or in the case of Best Picture, ten — actual nominees.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is honoring films released between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2024. Links here go to my reviews.

Check out my still ongoing, not yet completed ranking of 2024’s films.

(See the Academy’s site at Oscars.org and ABC’s site at Oscars.com for your further Oscar needs.)

Actor in a Leading Role
[ X ] Adrien Brody – The Brutalist *WINNER*
[ ] Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
[ ] Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
[ ] Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
[ ] Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice SHOULD WIN

Actor in a Supporting Role
[ ] Yura Borisov – Anora
[ ] Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain SHOULD WIN *WINNER*
[ ] Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
[ X ] Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
[ ] Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

Actress in a Leading Role
[ ] Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
[ ] Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
[ ] Mikey Madison – Anora *WINNER*
[ ] Demi Moore – The Substance SHOULD WIN
[ X ] Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

Actress in a Supporting Role
[ ] Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
[ ] Ariana Grande – Wicked
[ ] Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
[ X ] Isabella Rossellini – Conclave SHOULD WIN
[ ] Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez *WINNER*

Animated Feature Film
[ ] Flow SHOULD WIN *WINNER*
[ ] Inside Out 2
[ ] Memoir of a Snail
[ ] Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
[ X ] The Wild Robot

Animated Short Film
[ ] “Beautiful Men”
[ X ] “In the Shadow of the Cypress” *WINNER*
[ ] “Magic Candies”
[ ] “Wander to Wonder” SHOULD WIN
[ ] “Yuck! (Beurk!)”

Cinematography
[ X ] The Brutalist *WINNER*
[ ] Dune: Part Two
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ ] Maria
[ ] Nosferatu SHOULD WIN

Costume Design
[ ] A Complete Unknown
[ ] Conclave
[ ] Gladiator II
[ ] Nosferatu SHOULD WIN
[ X ] Wicked *WINNER*

Directing
[ ] Sean Baker – Anora *WINNER*
[ X ] Brady Corbet – The Brutalist SHOULD WIN
[ ] James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
[ ] Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
[ ] Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

Documentary Feature Film
[ ] Black Box Diaries
[ X ] No Other Land SHOULD WIN *WINNER*
[ ] Porcelain War
[ ] Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
[ ] Sugarcane

Documentary Short Film
[ ] “Death by Numbers”
[ ] “I Am Ready, Warden”
[ ] “Incident” SHOULD WIN
[ ] “Instruments of a Beating Heart”
[ X ] “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” *WINNER*

Film Editing
[ ] Anora *WINNER*
[ ] The Brutalist
[ ] Conclave SHOULD WIN
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ X ] Wicked

International Feature Film
[ X ] I’m Still Here *WINNER*
[ ] The Girl with the Needle
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ ] The Seed of the Sacred Fig SHOULD WIN
[ ] Flow

Makeup and Hairstyling
[ ] A Different Man
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ ] Nosferatu SHOULD WIN
[ ] The Substance *WINNER*
[ X ] Wicked

Music (Original Score)
[ ] The Brutalist *WINNER*
[ ] Conclave SHOULD WIN
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ X ] Wicked
[ ] The Wild Robot

Music (Original Song)
[ ] “El Mal” – Emilia Pérez *WINNER*
[ X ] “The Journey” – The Six Triple Eight
[ ] “Like a Bird” – Sing Sing SHOULD WIN
[ ] “Mi Camino” – Emilia Pérez
[ ] “Never Too Late” – Elton John: Never Too Late

Best Picture
[ ] Anora *WINNER*
[ X ] The Brutalist SHOULD WIN
[ ] A Complete Unknown
[ ] Conclave
[ ] Dune: Part Two
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ ] I’m Still Here
[ ] Nickel Boys
[ ] The Substance
[ ] Wicked

Production Design
[ ] The Brutalist SHOULD WIN
[ ] Conclave
[ ] Dune: Part Two
[ ] Nosferatu
[ X ] Wicked *WINNER*

Live Action Short Film
[ ] “A Lien”
[ ] “Anuja”
[ X ] “I’m Not a Robot” SHOULD WIN *WINNER*
[ ] “The Last Ranger”
[ ] “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”

Sound
[ ] A Complete Unknown
[ X ] Dune: Part Two SHOULD WIN *WINNER*
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ ] Wicked
[ ] The Wild Robot

Visual Effects
[ ] Alien: Romulus
[ ] Better Man
[ X ] Dune: Part Two SHOULD WIN *WINNER*
[ ] Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
[ ] Wicked

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
[ ] A Complete Unknown
[ ] Conclave *WINNER*
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ X ] Nickel Boys
[ ] Sing Sing SHOULD WIN

Writing (Original Screenplay)
[ ] Anora *WINNER*
[ ] The Brutalist
[ ] A Real Pain
[ ] September 5
[ X ] The Substance SHOULD WIN